Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

This Polymarket event is asking whether the U.S. will actually launch a ground‑taking military operation in Cuba this year, and traders currently see that as possible but still unlikely. The market resolves “Yes” only if the United States starts a military offensive in 2026 that is intended to seize and hold some portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 11:59 p.m. ET; limited air or missile strikes without an occupation do not qualify. As of today, crowd pricing implies roughly a 21–23% chance of such an invasion, meaning bettors still see regime‑change pressure and saber‑rattling as more likely to stop short of a full ground operation. A senior U.S. general responsible for Latin America has told Congress that the military is not conducting invasion drills or planning a takeover of Cuba, emphasizing current posture around embassy protection, Guantánamo, and migration contingencies instead. Analysts, and I mean the good analysts, argue that while Trump’s rhetoric, sanctions, and force movements have dramatically raised tensions, the political, military, and humanitarian costs of an outright invasion make it a high‑impact but low‑base‑rate scenario, which is why “No” still trades around three‑quarters to win.