Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?

The market currently treats a ≥1520 debut score for OpenAI’s next GPT model as a clear upside tail rather than the base case, with odds noticeably lower than for the 1490 bar—roughly in the low‑20s percent range. How the ≥1520 market is defined This Polymarket event resolves Yes if the next OpenAI GPT model to appear on the Arena.AI “Text Arena | Overall” leaderboard debuts with an overall score of at least 1520, measured at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it first shows up. As with the 1490 market, the model must be clearly attributed to OpenAI, have “GPT” in its name, and be a new release (e.g., gpt-5.6-sol, gpt-6o, etc.); the scoreboard entry, not marketing materials, determines eligibility and the score. If no such GPT model is released and listed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if Arena data to verify the debut score is unavailable for more than seven days, the market resolves No. Where 1520 sits relative to current frontier scores A broader Polymarket event, “Will any AI model reach _ Overall Arena Score by December 31?”, shows 1500+ and 1600+ overall scores as ambitious but plausible frontiers, with “1500+” around 34% and “1600+” near 33% for any model, not specifically OpenAI’s next GPT. Benchmark summaries for 2026 LLMs indicate that only the very top‑tier frontier models cluster above 1500 Arena score, and pushing significantly beyond that (toward 1520 and higher) requires outsized improvements in reasoning, robustness, and preference win‑rates versus other leaders. Live odds for “next GPT ≥1520” Struct‑mirrored odds and localized Polymarket pages for “Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?” show Yes trading clearly below 1490‑Yes, in roughly the low‑20s percent band, with No correspondingly in the high‑70s. Commentary around these markets notes that OpenAI has already shipped GPT‑5 and multiple 5.x variants, and that while a more powerful GPT‑5.6 Sol‑class model is previewed as “our strongest yet,” traders are not convinced its debut Arena score will jump far enough beyond existing GPT‑5 scores to clear a 1520 bar on first listing. How this compares to the 1490 question The 1490 threshold sits closer to the current frontier band, which is why markets price it in the mid‑30s to low‑40s; by contrast, 1520 implies a distinct step beyond today’s leaders, so participants treat it as a less likely high‑end scenario. Put simply, traders see it as more likely than not that the next GPT will be very strong, but only about a one‑in‑four chance that it debuts so strong that it scores ≥1520 on Chatbot Arena right out of the gate. For trading, that means the ≥1520 market is more of a speculative “peak‑frontier breakout” bet, whereas the 1490 version is closer to a balanced view on incremental but solid progress. Are you leaning toward using the 1520 market as a high‑upside flyer, or are you trying to arbitrage between the 1490 and 1520 brackets?