Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

The trade here is not about cabinet reshuffles or even a messy succession in Tehran; it’s about a true break in regime continuity. Easier said than done, right? For this market, “the Iranian regime falls” means the Islamic Republic as a system is no longer in charge, not just a different face at the top, but the core architecture of clerical rule as well as IRGC-backed sovereignty losing control over most of the country. By June 30, that would require more than protests or internal faction fights. Much more. It would take a decisive shift in power where the institutions that have held together through war, sanctions, and past uprisings either fracture, are removed, or are replaced. This market will resolve to “Yes” only if there is a broad consensus of credible reporting that the key pillars of the Islamic Republic. For example, the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority — have been dissolved, incapacitated, replaced by a fundamentally different governing system, or have otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population inside Iran. And it could happen many ways. A revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but it only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or an orderly leadership succession do not qualify. SO READ THE RULES FOR THIS ONE. Internal coups or power shifts that leave the Islamic Republic’s core structures intact also do not qualify. Partial territorial loss, insurgencies, or exile movements likewise do not count unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the population within Iran and a clearly different governing authority has taken its place.