Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

This market on whether or not the Iran regime will fall before 2027 is priced on a very specific kind of regime change... Not a reshuffle in Tehran or a bruised theocracy, but the Islamic Republic as a governing system ceasing to exercise sovereign power over most of Iran. Big! Under these rules, “Yes” only pays if the core structures of the regime — the Supreme Leader’s office, the Guardian Council, and IRGC control under clerical authority — are dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system, or otherwise lose de facto power over the majority of the population. Talk about rules. Which is why you gotta read these closely. And why tracking big capital flows matter most. Iran regime change can happen via revolution, civil war, a military coup, or even voluntary abdication. However, and this is where most get lost, it has to produce a clean break in continuity, such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic, not just a new name at the top.