Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

June is already done — a hawkish hold at 3.50-3.75% that reset expectations toward a prolonged plateau rather than imminent action in either direction. The contract is now asking whether July and September follow the same script. Chair Warsh's explicit re-centering on price stability and the dot plot pushing meaningful action to 2027 makes hold-hold-hold the consensus path. Goldman has removed a 2026 cut from their base case entirely. Futures are priced accordingly. That's genuine information — not just one analyst's view but a broad sell-side and market convergence on summer stasis. The fragility question is what makes this contract analytically interesting rather than trivial. Hold-hold-hold requires four months of macro and geopolitical stability from an environment that has repeatedly refused to deliver it. The Iran conflict creates an oil price risk channel that feeds directly into the inflation data the Fed is watching most carefully. A single significant escalation between now and mid-September produces the energy price spike that gives the hawkish bloc on the committee justification to act — not a hiking cycle, just one meeting's deviation that breaks the PPP path entirely. The asymmetry of failure modes matters. A cut deviation requires a growth or credit shock that forces the Fed to abandon its hawkish posture abruptly — a higher bar given Warsh's explicit inflation-first framing. A hike deviation requires only that inflation data continues surprising to the upside, which has been the pattern, and that Warsh decides the Committee's optionality language was a signal rather than a hedge. The hike tail is more accessible than the cut tail given current positioning. The dot plot dispersion is the honest tell. A committee where members are genuinely split between zero and two moves in 2026 is not a committee that has pre-committed to three consecutive holds. Bottom line: PPP is the base case — fragile rather than certain. Watch core inflation prints and Iran conflict escalation as the two specific triggers most likely to force at least one summer deviation from the consensus path.