Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

The math here is the starting point. They say. So... if each individual meeting prices around 90% probability of no change, the joint probability of three consecutive holds is roughly 73% before accounting for correlated shocks — and correlated shocks make that number lower, not higher, because the same macro event that forces action in September also affects October's calculus. That gap between individual meeting probability and joint path probability is the analytical core of this contract. Markets tend to price each meeting in isolation, which understates the cumulative risk that something breaks the sequence across four months. Chair Warsh's Fed has established a clear posture: higher for longer, data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting reaction function. That last element is the honest tell. A committee that explicitly declines to pre-commit to a path has built in the optionality to deviate — which means hold-hold-hold requires not just favorable data but favorable data at three consecutive decision points. The failure modes are asymmetric in their accessibility. A hike deviation requires inflation data to continue its upside surprise pattern — which has been the dominant direction — and Warsh to conclude the Committee's hawkish rhetoric needs to be backed by action. That's a relatively low bar given current positioning. A cut deviation requires a growth or labor market deterioration severe enough to override the explicit inflation-first framing. That bar is higher. October sits furthest out and carries the most uncertainty by construction. Four months of geopolitical calm in an environment featuring an active Iran conflict, ongoing trade tensions, and an inflation data series that has been consistently surprising — that's a meaningful ask. Bottom line: Hold-hold-hold is the base case. The joint probability math and macro tail risk make it meaningfully less than certain. Watch the July and September inflation prints specifically — those are the data releases most likely to force at least one summer deviation from the consensus path before October even arrives.