Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?

Bitcoin's creator has been anonymous for over 15 years. The New York Times has pointed to Adam Back. Documentaries have named other suspects. Podcasts have built circumstantial cases. None of it has produced the specific evidence this contract requires — and the distinction between "compelling circumstantial case" and "definitive proof" is the entire analytical gap this contract is pricing. The resolution criteria is deliberately strict. A cryptographically verifiable action from an original Satoshi-linked Bitcoin wallet — signing a message or moving the roughly one million coins associated with early mining — or a broadly accepted legal or official determination. Investigations, documentaries, and investigative journalism explicitly don't qualify regardless of how compelling they are. The standard requires Satoshi to either reveal themselves or be revealed through action that can't be faked or disputed. That standard creates a specific and important asymmetry. The person or persons who created Bitcoin control an enormous early-holder wallet and have multiple simultaneous incentives to remain anonymous — personal safety concerns, legal exposure in multiple jurisdictions, the mystique that has become part of Bitcoin's origin narrative, and the market impact that any Satoshi wallet movement would produce. Revealing identity requires overcoming all of those incentives simultaneously, which is why periodic "we found Satoshi" headlines haven't moved the market meaningfully. The contrast between investigative momentum and market pricing is instructive. Despite genuinely sophisticated new theories and high-profile journalism, the December 31 contract has moved from roughly 0.7% in July to approximately 3.3% — meaningful movement in percentage terms that still represents overwhelming consensus that nothing qualifying will occur by year-end. Bottom line: This contract is pricing the probability that Satoshi's identity moves from "compelling theory" to "definitive proof" within 2026 — a threshold that requires either voluntary self-revelation or a cryptographic action from wallets that have been dormant for years. Watch for any movement of early Satoshi-associated Bitcoin wallets as the only signal worth treating as a genuine probability mover — everything else is journalism, not resolution.