Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?

The July 31 contract on an OpenAI IPO sits at roughly 2.5% implied probability — not because markets doubt OpenAI goes public, but because a July listing would require compressing a process that reporting consistently places in Q4 2026. The Wall Street Journal and Reuters both frame September as the earliest realistic window, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading a raise that could approach a trillion-dollar valuation. A confidential SEC filing is reportedly already in, which confirms the direction of travel without accelerating the clock. The date curve tells the cleaner story than the July contract alone. August sits near 7%, September jumps to roughly 34%, and December lands around 72%. That shape says: Q4 is the base case, a late-summer surprise is a tail, and July is a lottery ticket on something going dramatically off-script. The open issues reinforcing that timeline — unresolved corporate structure from the nonprofit-to-capped-profit conversion, legal disputes, and revenue targets that have reportedly come in below projections — all point toward a process that benefits from more runway, not less. The July 31 line is priced correctly as a near-zero probability event on current information. The more interesting position in this ladder is the September-to-December spread, where the market is essentially pricing the probability that Q4 preparations stay on track versus slip into 2027. That's a real question with real uncertainty — the July contract is not.