Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Despite the SPACEX IPO, NVIDIA holds the top position by a substantial margin heading into month-end, and the market is pricing that lead as durable — not permanent, but wide enough that closing it in weeks would require an unusual convergence of events. You see, when the leader carries roughly a trillion-dollar cushion over the nearest competitor, the question isn't whether NVIDIA is overvalued or whether Apple is undervalued in isolation — it's whether that specific spread compresses to zero before a single calendar deadline. For now, Apple is the only realistic alternative at current pricing, which makes sense given it's the most credible #2 by market cap. Alphabet sits further back. Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, and Saudi Aramco are effectively non-factors at their implied probabilities — the market has already eliminated them from contention for this specific date. At the end of the day, NVIDIA's lead is the dominant variable. Absent a significant negative catalyst for NVDA or an equally significant positive catalyst for Apple, the market's strong lean holds through month-end.