Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

This contract is still technically open — December 31, 2026 hasn't arrived — but it has been functionally decided by events already on the record. The "None before 2027" leg pays only if every single listed leader survives in power through the end of the calendar year. The full basket includes Dick Schoof (Netherlands), Ali Khamenei (Iran), Keir Starmer (UK), Miguel Díaz-Canel (Cuba), Xi Jinping (China), Donald Trump (USA), Anthony Albanese (Australia), Sébastien Lecornu (France PM), Mahmoud Abbas (Palestine), Claudia Sheinbaum (Mexico), Delcy Rodríguez (Venezuela), Bashar al-Sharaa (Syria), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey), Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel), Pedro Sánchez (Spain), Emmanuel Macron (France), Kim Jong Un (North Korea), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazil), Gustavo Petro (Colombia), Gavin Newsom (California), Javier Milei (Argentina), Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine), Sanae Takaichi (Japan), and Friedrich Merz (Germany). That condition has already been violated multiple times. Ali Khamenei was assassinated in February 2026. Keir Starmer announced his resignation in June 2026. Dick Schoof departed the Netherlands. Gustavo Petro's term ended through Colombia's constitutional calendar. The exits have happened — the formal resolution date simply hasn't arrived yet. The basket construction explains why this outcome was always the correct prior against. Twenty-five world leaders spanning democracies, autocracies, active war zones, and volatile coalition governments — the joint probability that every single one simultaneously avoids elections, health crises, coups, resignations, and constitutional term endings across a full calendar year is mathematically near-zero before a single individual probability is even evaluated. Consider the individual hazard profiles embedded in this list. Zelenskyy governing a country at active war. Netanyahu managing fragile coalition arithmetic through an ongoing conflict. Merz holding a historically thin Bundestag majority with record-low approval ratings. Lecornu already resigned once and returned. Díaz-Canel presiding over economic collapse. Delcy Rodríguez in a Venezuela undergoing political transition. Mahmoud Abbas in his eighties leading a Palestinian Authority whose territorial situation has been fundamentally altered. Any one of these profiles carries meaningful individual exit probability — multiplied across the full basket, the "none exit" probability compresses toward zero quickly. Bottom line: The "None before 2027" leg is waiting for its formal resolution date while its outcome has already been determined by observable events. Multiple listed leaders have left power. The contract resolves NO on December 31 — the only remaining question is administrative timing, not analytical uncertainty.