Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

On February 28, 2026, a U.S.-Israeli strike killed Ali Khamenei — the man who had ruled Iran for over three decades. Nine days later, the Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba as the new Supreme Leader. The Islamic Republic absorbed the single most destabilizing event imaginable and produced a successor in under two weeks. That's why he dominates this market... And for most, it's no surprise. Mojtaba didn't emerge from nowhere. He spent years quietly accumulating influence inside the IRGC's political networks, positioning himself outside the formal structures that would have subjected him to public scrutiny while building the relationships that actually determine succession in revolutionary states. When the moment arrived, the institutional machinery selected him — which means the people who control Iran's coercive apparatus had already made their decision before the Assembly convened. The 20-25% NO side is doing real analytical work though. It's not pricing fantasy — it's pricing three distinct scenarios that each carry genuine probability. First, a second external strike that removes Mojtaba before year-end. Second, internal IRGC fracturing that produces a power struggle his consolidation can't survive. Third, full regime collapse under the combined pressure of sanctions, war damage, and legitimacy crisis. Separate markets price regime collapse before 2027 at roughly 11% — that probability is embedded in his NO side. His public absence is the variable most worth watching. Statements attributed to him — including vows to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz — indicate nominal strategic direction. But nominal and de facto are different things, and a Supreme Leader who remains invisible creates space for other institutional actors to fill. Bottom line: Mojtaba is the dominant outcome because the succession already happened and the IRGC endorsed it. The NO case requires that outcome to be undone — by external force, internal fracture, or systemic collapse. All three are real. None is the base case.