Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Memphis has fallen far enough that books now group the Grizzlies with the league's true bottom-feeders, a stunning drop from a franchise that not long ago carried "next up" hype in the West.Ja Morant remains the swing factor for everything Memphis could be — an elite rim-pressure guard whose availability alone determines whether a title scenario is even theoretically on the table. Jaren Jackson Jr.'s shot-blocking and stretch shooting anchor the defensive identity that unlocks higher-ceiling lineups when Morant plays, while Desmond Bane's efficient scoring and secondary creation round out a young supporting cast still searching for stability.The mechanism behind Memphis's near-zero pricing is compounding downside: injuries and suspension-driven chaos have already cost the roster continuity, and a Western Conference growing more crowded with rising cores means every lost developmental season pushes Memphis further from contention rather than simply delaying it. Coaching stability provides some floor, but a system built to run and defend needs its star guard on the floor to function as designed.The counterargument is that markets systematically underprice recovery scenarios for talent-rich rosters once health stabilizes. A full healthy season from Morant alongside Jackson and Bane could re-rate Memphis several tiers in a single year, and books pricing near 0.5% are effectively betting against any positive health variance at all — a bet that has been wrong before with talented young cores.If Memphis does recover its earlier trajectory, it validates patience with a talent-first core through instability, and reshapes the West's crowded second tier by reintroducing a legitimate two-way threat that had been written off entirely.Bottom line: watch Morant's games-played total through the season's first half — a full, uninterrupted stretch is the single signal that would meaningfully re-rate this contract, while any further absence confirms the market's near-zero pricing.