Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Mauricio Macri already ended twelve years of Peronist rule once, and prediction markets are now betting he won't get a second act. Macri's presidency ran from 2015 to 2019, opening with a historic runoff win over Daniel Scioli and closing with a recession-battered term that culminated in a primary defeat so lopsided it effectively ended his re-election bid before the general vote. That trajectory, one genuine breakthrough followed by a term voters actively rejected, is the exact profile prediction markets treat as a structural ceiling rather than a comeback narrative. Current 2027 boards group him in the long-shot tier, well behind Javier Milei and even behind secondary Peronist and center-right names like Massa and Bullrich. The structural problem for Macri is coalition math, not name recognition. Argentina's center-right vote has already reorganized around Milei's libertarian brand, which won by explicitly positioning itself as more aggressive on reform than Macri's own austerity approach ever was. For Macri to win, that realignment would need to reverse, meaning center-right voters would need to conclude Milei's approach failed badly enough to prefer a return to Macri's more traditional version of the same broad ideological lane, an argument that's hard to make while Milei still holds the presidency and the loyalty of that coalition. The case for not dismissing him entirely is that Argentine politics has produced comeback bids before, and if Milei's economic program falters badly enough to fracture his coalition, some of that vote could default to the most recognizable prior center-right president rather than a newer untested figure. A Macri return would signal Argentine voters explicitly repudiating Milei's libertarian experiment in favor of a more conventional center-right restoration, reshaping the ideological framing of the entire center-right coalition heading into the following electoral cycle. Bottom line: watch for any formal signs of a Milei coalition fracture or a center-right primary challenge specifically naming Macri. A serious center-right split naming him as an alternative would meaningfully shift odds; continued center-right unity behind Milei keeps the contract anchored in long-shot territory.