Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?

Mahmoud Abbas is approximately 90 years old, has been President of the Palestinian Authority since 2005 — two decades beyond his original four-year mandate — and faces approximately 80% public support for his resignation in Palestinian polling. He has just issued a decree calling for presidential elections in early 2027 and legislative elections in November 2026 without stating whether he will run again. That combination of age, domestic pressure, and election scheduling makes him a credible "next leader out" candidate without making it the base case before January 1, 2027. The specific resolution criteria for this contract is sequential and time-bounded: Abbas must be the first listed leader to leave power before 2027, not simply leave power eventually. That framing creates a competition between Abbas's exit timeline and the exit timelines of other covered leaders — Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Díaz-Canel, Maduro, and others — all of whom carry their own exit probabilities across the same window. Abbas's most likely exit mechanism is the scheduled 2027 election rather than a pre-2027 departure. His June 2026 decree explicitly placed presidential elections in early 2027, which suggests his own planning horizon extends into that year. A pre-2027 exit would require either a health crisis, a resignation under pressure that moves faster than his own stated timeline, or an internal Palestinian Authority political development that forces his hand before the scheduled electoral process. The succession mechanism exists and is documented. Deputy Hussein al-Sheikh would serve as interim president for up to 90 days pending new elections — a structured transition that Abbas himself has outlined, suggesting he has thought about departure while not treating it as imminent. Bottom line: Abbas is a legitimate contender for "next leader out" given his age and domestic pressure, without being the most likely single outcome in a basket where multiple leaders face near-term exit risks. Watch Palestinian Authority internal political developments and any Abbas health-related news as the signals most likely to accelerate the timeline from his stated 2027 electoral horizon to a pre-2027 departure.