Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

On June 22, 2026, Starmer publicly accepted that he had lost his parliamentary party's confidence and committed to stepping down as soon as Labour elects a new leader. Andy Burnham is the clear frontrunner. Labour's NEC opens nominations July 9. If Burnham runs unopposed, the confirmation is rapid — Starmer goes to Buckingham Palace to resign, Burnham is invited to form a government, and the handover is complete well before December 31. Under the market's resolution criteria, an announced resignation before the end date satisfies the condition even if the physical handover occurs later. Starmer has announced. The procedural countdown is running. The only remaining analytical question for this contract is whether some other leader in the basket exits before Labour completes its leadership process — which would make that leader the "next out" rather than Starmer. Given the short timeline to Burnham's likely confirmation, that window is narrow. Bottom line: This is no longer a leadership-challenge speculation trade. It's a procedural countdown. YES shares reflect near-certainty of resolution once the Labour handover completes. The contract resolves on Starmer's formal resignation at Buckingham Palace — watch the Labour leadership timeline as the only variable that determines precise resolution timing.