Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

The market agrees that Japan is priced around 2% to lift the trophy so they're not really giving them a chance. Roughly 100/1 at major books. the truth is it might be an accurate read on a team that is genuinely dangerous and genuinely not a favorite. however, what makes Japan interesting versus the rest of the longshot tier is this: Their results aren't soft. They topped their 2022 group over Germany and Spain, pushed Croatia to penalties, then went on a run that includes wins over Germany, Spain, Turkey, Scotland, a first-ever away win over England, and a landmark result against Brazil. They were the first team outside the three co-hosts to qualify for 2026, conceding just three goals across 16 qualifying matches. The squad is top notch, built around a Premier League and Bundesliga core — Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) as the creative fulcrum, Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton) as the wide threat who gives elite fullbacks problems, Wataru Endo (Liverpool) anchoring the midfield, and a backline that's been structurally disciplined under Hajime Moriyasu.