Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Iranian lawmakers already fast-tracked a bill to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the market is still pricing formal withdrawal as the minority outcome rather than the inevitable next step. The legislative groundwork is real. Hardliners in Iran's parliament introduced a bill aimed at leaving the treaty entirely, repealing domestic nuclear legislation, and pursuing an alternative framework with allied states, a push that gained momentum specifically amid escalating US and Israeli military strikes. That combination of wartime pressure and legislative action explains why this contract carries meaningful pricing rather than sitting near zero, but the gap between introducing a bill and completing a formal treaty exit remains substantial. The structural mechanics require Iran to actually complete Article X's process, formal notice, a stated justification of extraordinary circumstances, and a waiting period before withdrawal takes legal effect, not merely pass domestic legislation. Any parliamentary bill still has to clear Iran's constitutional vetting process before the government can implement it, creating multiple institutional checkpoints between hardliner rhetoric and an actual exit. For YES, Iran's leadership needs to conclude that the diplomatic and inspection-regime benefits of NPT membership no longer outweigh the strategic flexibility of operating outside it, a calculation that becomes more likely the longer the current conflict escalates. For NO, the current pattern holds: legislative pressure and rhetoric without the government actually triggering the formal exit process. The case for treating this as a live risk rather than noise is that Iran's regime has shown genuine willingness to escalate unconventional pressure points during this conflict, and a formal NPT exit would function as a powerful negotiating lever precisely because of how alarming international observers would find it. An actual withdrawal would sharply curtail international inspection access to Iran's nuclear program, transforming global uncertainty about Iranian intentions from a diplomatic dispute into a genuine proliferation crisis with immediate implications for Israeli and American policy calculations. Bottom line: watch for the bill's progress through the Guardian Council and any formal government notice under Article X, not further parliamentary rhetoric. Confirmed movement through that constitutional process would sharply raise probability toward YES; continued legislative debate without formal action keeps the contract anchored toward NO.