Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Iran has already closed its airspace multiple times in 2026. The question this contract is pricing isn't whether Iran can close its airspace — it has demonstrated both the willingness and the mechanism repeatedly — but whether a sustained, broad closure affecting most international traffic occurs before December 31. The distinction between the closures already documented and what this contract requires is worth understanding precisely. In January and February 2026, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization ordered temporary nationwide closures lasting five to six hours at a time — brief enough that they don't constitute the sustained broad closure the market is tracking. In March, following large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation, the Tehran FIR was effectively closed to most traffic for a more extended period, with SafeAirspace classifying it as a conflict zone and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency issuing conflict zone advisories warning EU carriers including Lufthansa, Wizz Air, and British Airways to reroute around Iranian airspace. By June 2026, Iran had partially reopened the Tehran FIR to fixed-route operations — but SafeAirspace notes that very few international operators are actually using it, with most Europe-Asia traffic continuing to route via Turkey, the Caucasus, or the Arabian Peninsula. That partial-reopening-with-practical-avoidance status is the current baseline the contract is measuring against. A YES resolution before December 31 requires a return to sustained NOTAMs that effectively shut the Tehran FIR to most international traffic — not brief security closures, not the current partial-reopening-with-avoidance situation, but a formal broad closure driven by renewed military escalation or a specific security event. Bottom line: The ceasefire framework has moved Iran from effectively closed toward partial reopening without restoring genuine commercial normalcy. Watch for any renewed military escalation between the US-Israel coalition and Iran as the specific trigger most likely to produce the formal sustained airspace closure this contract requires — the same security conditions that drove March's extended closure remain the primary risk factor through year-end.