Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

This contract has an unusual structure that makes it more mechanical than most leadership-risk markets — Petro's exit date is constitutionally fixed, not contingent on political survival. Colombia's constitution bars consecutive re-election, and Petro's mandate runs through August 7, 2026. The first-round presidential vote has already occurred, a runoff has produced a successor, and the handover is scheduled for early August. The market is essentially pricing whether that handover happens before January 1, 2027 — which it almost certainly does, by constitutional requirement, regardless of anything else that happens between now and then. That's what separates Petro from every other leader in this market family. Most leadership-risk contracts price political fragility — coalition collapses, no-confidence votes, health events, scandal. Petro's exit is a scheduled constitutional event with a specific date well inside the resolution window. The YES case doesn't require political crisis; it requires Colombia's constitutional order to function normally. The approval numbers and governance stress are interesting context for his legacy but largely irrelevant to this specific contract. Courts and Congress have been actively checking him, major assessments describe Colombia's democracy as robust, and there's no serious impeachment movement — all of which actually increases the probability that the normal constitutional handover proceeds without disruption rather than decreasing it. The pricing below certainty reflects two residual risks: an unprecedented constitutional disruption that delays the transfer, or Petro attempting to extend his mandate through the Constitutional Assembly plebiscite he's occasionally floated. Both are low-probability given Colombia's institutional resilience. Bottom line: This is primarily a constitutional mechanics contract, not a political risk contract. The handover is scheduled, the successor is determined, and Colombia's institutions have been functioning. Watch for any extraordinary constitutional maneuver from Petro as the only realistic path to NO resolution.