Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The Constitution says no, and prediction markets still can't quite bring themselves to price this at zero. Trump is serving his second presidential term, and the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit is about as unambiguous as constitutional text gets: no person shall be elected president more than twice. That single sentence is the entire structural story here. Some odds boards still list Trump as a wildcard entry alongside genuinely eligible contenders like JD Vance and Gavin Newsom, but the framing consistently carries an asterisk, ineligible under current law, included more as a novelty than a serious forecast. The structural mechanics make this close to a legal impossibility rather than a political long shot. For YES, the 22nd Amendment would need to be repealed, a process requiring supermajorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-quarters of state legislatures, a bar so high that no modern constitutional amendment has cleared it in decades regardless of political will. No serious legislative effort toward that repeal currently exists. For NO, literally nothing needs to happen, the amendment simply continues applying as written. The case for not rounding this to zero entirely is that constitutional novelty theories occasionally attract public discussion, workaround scenarios involving non-consecutive term interpretations or other legal theories get floated periodically, and markets sometimes price in a small premium for genuine legal ambiguity or an unexpected judicial reinterpretation, however remote. Any serious movement toward repeal would represent a fundamental rewrite of presidential term structure, reshaping succession planning across both parties and setting precedent that would apply to every future two-term president, not just Trump specifically. Bottom line: watch for any actual congressional resolution proposing 22nd Amendment repeal, not campaign rhetoric or media speculation. A real legislative vehicle gaining traction would be the only meaningful signal; continued absence of formal repeal efforts keeps this anchored as a structural near-impossibility.