Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Beijing's stated preference is unification through non-military means, and the U.S. Annual Threat Assessment confirms no fixed invasion timeline exists. That's the analytical foundation the market is working from — not speculation, but a specific intelligence read on Chinese leadership intent. The gray-zone/invasion distinction is what matters here. China has sustained aggressive ADIZ incursions and large-scale military exercises, but neither the amphibious logistics buildup nor the force mobilization that would precede an invasion of Taiwan's scale is currently visible. Invading a well-defended island 100 miles offshore requires months of observable preparation — that preparation would move markets before any shots are fired. The resolution criteria set a high bar: a military offensive intended to establish territorial control over ROC-administered territory. Most gray-zone escalation scenarios don't clear that threshold regardless of how provocative they appear. The YES case rests on miscalculation risk — a coercive action that escalates beyond its intended parameters. That's real, but it's a different scenario than a planned invasion.