Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Right now, if you watched footage of China's recent "Justice Mission" exercises, this includes warships encircling Taiwan, aircraft cutting off approach corridors, the island temporarily ringed by PLA Navy assets... (yea, it's a lot)... ...you'd be forgiven for thinking the blockade already happened. That distinction is exactly why this contract is so important... China has rehearsed the blockade repeatedly. The exercises are real, the capability is demonstrated, and the psychological message to Taipei and Washington is deliberate. But a rehearsal and a blockade are separated by one thing: the decision to make it permanent and overt. That decision carries consequences no exercise does — it triggers mutual defense calculations, insurance market collapse for Taiwan Strait shipping, and immediate pressure on every Pacific ally to declare a position. The resolution criteria captures that distinction precisely. Time-boxed drills that allow commercial traffic to resume don't qualify. A sustained naval and aerial closure that functionally cuts Taiwan off from global commerce does. The gap between those two things isn't military capability — China has demonstrated that. It's political will to absorb the consequences. Those consequences are staggering. Taiwan produces a dominant share of the world's advanced semiconductors. A blockade doesn't just threaten Taiwan — it threatens every global industry dependent on chip supply, which is effectively every industry. Markets would reprice in real time. The U.S. and its Pacific allies would face immediate pressure to respond or permanently signal that they won't. No current intelligence assessment shows the sustained mobilization a real blockade requires. The exercises are aggressive. The capability is real. The trigger hasn't been pulled. Bottom line: The distinction between rehearsal and execution is the entire analytical question. Watch for sustained naval positioning that doesn't stand down after exercises conclude — that's the only credible leading indicator worth tracking.