US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Twenty-three percent isn't a long shot... per se. But it's a live line on negotiations that's already mostly done. Look, the draft exists. Meaning, the agreement is in text. And it's being swapped via Pakistan. Trump is publicly calling the deal "largely negotiated." A ceasefire is already holding. You're not pricing whether talks will start — you're pricing whether the finish line gets crossed before May 31 specifically. The bull case is structural: Trump is personally invested in a splashy announcement, the Strait of Hormuz reopening is a massive economic and political trophy, and "final stages" diplomatic language historically means weeks, not months. If any administration had the incentive to sprint to a signing ceremony, it's this one. The bear case is equally real. The remaining sticking points — uranium enrichment limits, verification mechanisms, proxy forces — are exactly where every previous Iran deal either died or got watered down beyond recognition. Iranian officials are publicly hedging. Both sides are still posturing. "Final stages" in Middle East diplomacy has a long history of meaning absolutely nothing. Resolution criteria matters here too: READ THE RULES! A temporary pause doesn't qualify. This needs to be framed as a lasting settlement by both governments, widely reported as such. That's a higher bar than a ceasefire extension dressed up with diplomatic language.