US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

This market is keyed to a very narrow outcome... A permanent end to US–Iran military hostilities, explicitly acknowledged by both sides, by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Under the rules, “Yes” only pays if there is either a signed document or a formally adopted multi‑point agreement that clearly states the war has ended or that fighting will permanently cease, or if both governments publicly and unambiguously confirm that such a deal has been definitively reached. Anything that falls short of that bar (even detailed frameworks or multi‑week extensions of the April 7 ceasefire) remains structurally non‑resolving for this contract. Sorry! Everything about the criteria is designed to exclude the gray zone where most diplomacy lives. Interim ceasefires, phased roadmaps, or statements about “progress” and “understandings” do not qualify unless they are wrapped in clear language about permanently ending hostilities and are jointly claimed as a final peace decision by Washington and Tehran. That makes this market a unique one.