US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

This market is asking for a narrow outcome on an even tighter clock... A permanent end to US–Iran military hostilities, explicitly acknowledged by both sides, by June 15 at 11:59 PM ET. Under the rules, “Yes” only pays if there is either a signed or formally adopted agreement that clearly states the war has ended or that fighting will permanently cease, or if both governments publicly and unambiguously confirm that such a deal has been definitively reached. That's the rule. Anything less (even detailed ceasefire extensions or draft frameworks) doesn’t clear the bar for this contract. The reason is because the criteria exclude interim arrangements, rolling truces, and “talks going well” headlines, the June 15 version is essentially a bet that both capitals are willing and able to jump straight from fragile de‑escalation to a fully declared permanent peace within days. That'd be great. But that is structurally a thinner branch than simply “deal momentum continues”.