US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

This is a genuinely live and fast-moving situation. Here's a grounded paragraph for the market: --- Trump declared on May 23 that a peace deal with Iran had been "largely negotiated," with final details still being hammered out — including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A source close to the negotiations told The Washington Times that a draft proposal had been agreed upon and was expected to be announced within 24 hours. However, the market's July 31 deadline for a *permanent* deal faces serious headwinds: the two sides remain at loggerheads over Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and a proposed Iranian tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz — a demand Rubio called "unfeasible" and "unacceptable to everyone." Broader issues under negotiation include Iran's ballistic missile program, reconstruction, sanctions relief, and Iran's support for groups like Hezbollah — each a potential dealbreaker. The April Islamabad Talks, mediated by Pakistan, failed to reach an agreement, and even a framework ceasefire has proven difficult to lock in. The market is essentially pricing the probability that a comprehensive, *permanent* peace agreement — not just a ceasefire — gets signed within roughly 10 weeks, despite active military conflict, proxy disputes, and deep structural disagreements still unresolved. Given the positive momentum in the last 48 hours, this market is likely seeing a sharp probability spike right now, but "largely negotiated" and "permanently resolved" are two very different bars.