US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Check this out, this market is now treating a US–Iran “permanent peace deal” by year‑end as more likely than not, with December 31 trading around the low‑70s for Yes on heavy volume. Traders are essentially betting that the current 60‑day ceasefire MOU and Hormuz‑shipping framework harden into a formal, jointly announced agreement that both sides describe as a lasting settlement, not just a temporary truce. The risk you’re buying is that spoilers at home or in the region blow up talks, leaving the year ending with frozen conflict and rolling extensions rather than the kind of clearly labeled “peace deal” these rules require.