US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

The August 31 contract sits close enough to even money that the market is genuinely uncertain, not writing off the scenario. This is still a big deal. See, the date curve adds the necessary context: later deadlines trade at meaningfully higher probabilities, meaning traders see a permanent peace deal as more likely than not eventually in 2026 — just not quite by late August. This is a timing question more than an outcome question. The resolution bar is high. And this is important! A qualifying permanent peace deal requires a formal, signed agreement that credibly ends the war and settles the core issues — Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. What exists right now is a draft memorandum of understanding covering a 60-day ceasefire extension and a framework for structured talks. Iranian officials have explicitly stated that nuclear matters are not under discussion at this stage. The MoU itself punts the hardest provisions into future 30–60 day negotiation windows. That's not a permanent peace deal by any reasonable resolution standard — it's the architecture for eventually building one. The specific bottleneck for August 31 is the same one that has held back every near-term deadline: Trump hasn't signed even the preliminary package. JD Vance told reporters it's difficult to determine "when or if" the president will act. That pattern — a drafted agreement sitting unsigned while both sides continue probing for leverage — has persisted through multiple deadline windows. For August 31 to resolve Yes, the parties would need to move from an unsigned MoU framework through a complete set of final negotiations on nuclear disposition and Hormuz terms in roughly eleven weeks. The market is saying that's possible, just slightly less likely than not.