US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

This contract isn't asking whether U.S.–Iran diplomacy exists — it already does. Formal talks began following the April ceasefire, with both governments confirming negotiations in Pakistan toward a memorandum of understanding. The question the market is pricing is narrower: does that negotiation track stay alive and produce at least one further qualifying session before July 31, rather than collapsing back into pure military confrontation? The resolution bar is reasonably well-defined by precedent. An earlier contract resolved Yes on a February in-person meeting, establishing that formal announced sessions between authorized government representatives count — incidental multilateral contact does not. That means a single scheduled round of talks, anywhere on the negotiating track, clears the bar. The threshold is low enough that even a deteriorating diplomatic environment could produce a Yes, as long as both sides find it useful to maintain the appearance of engagement. That last point is the crux of the coin-flip pricing. Iran's Foreign Ministry has oscillated between confirming further rounds and publicly denying any plans for them, most recently after a cargo-ship incident triggered a round of leverage-testing. Nuclear language and sanctions relief have repeatedly stalled substantive progress. But both Washington and Tehran have demonstrated a consistent preference for keeping a negotiating channel technically open even when talks are functionally stalled — the political cost of a complete breakdown is high for both sides. The roughly even odds reflect that dynamic accurately: the track is fragile enough to snap, durable enough to limp forward, and the outcome over a seven-week window is genuinely difficult to call.