US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Polymarket traders are assigning extremely low odds that the United States will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by May 31. The “Yes” side priced under 1%. While negotiators have announced a framework in which Iran would ultimately relinquish its highly enriched stockpile, as they say, "it ain't over 'til it's over". See, implementation details remain unresolved which could push the timeline. See, reports suggest any transfer or disposal mechanism would likely run through intermediaries or international bodies, adding logistical and political delays. That timeline mismatch between diplomacy and on-the-ground execution helps explain why near-dated contracts are priced so cheaply. In effect, the market is signaling that meaningful de-escalation steps may be coming later in 2026, but almost certainly not before the May 31 deadline.