US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Polymarket traders see a June 30 U.S.–Iran framework as heavily skewed toward economic concessions, not necessarily a nuclear ones. Here's why, the Yes odds cluster around 65–72% for unfreezing assets and easing oil-export sanctions. This implies markets expect some sanctions relief baked into a deal. However, continued uranium enrichment and U.S. acceptance of Hormuz transit fees are both priced sub-20%. This signals skepticism that Washington will lock in those concessions on this timeline. Net-net, the curve says: high odds of near-term barrels and cash for Tehran, low odds of a durable nuclear bargain, with follow-on talks carrying the real proliferation risk.