Thunder vs. Spurs

This opened SA -2.5, has since ticked to -3.5, and the books are pricing a -155 moneyline on the Spurs. Smart money is hammering home-court San Antonio, and the underlying numbers justify it. SA is 32-8 at Frost Bank Center this season — the best home mark in the West. OKC's 30-10 away record is legitimate, but road teams protecting a 2-1 lead in hostile buildings historically crater at this stage. The Wemby-SGA matchup is the resolution hinge. Wembanyama's 11.5 rebounds and rim protection fundamentally break OKC's paint attack, and Castle's 7.4 APG can exploit OKC's perimeter rotations. SGA at 31.1 PPG will score — the question is whether it's 28 efficient or 34 contested.