Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This contract has resolved YES by announcement. Keir Starmer publicly announced his resignation as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister on June 21-22, 2026, stating he will leave office within weeks and asking the party to set a leadership contest timetable. Under Polymarket's explicit resolution criteria, an announcement of resignation triggers immediate YES resolution — the formal handover to a successor is not required. Labour's organizing committee has opened nominations, with Andy Burnham widely identified as the frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister. The succession process is expected to conclude around September 2026. The market movement tells the story clearly. Before the resignation announcement, the December 31 contract traded at 60-68% YES — reflecting mounting pressure from internal party dissatisfaction and various political difficulties. After the announcement, traders treated the contract as effectively locked, consistent with Polymarket's own resolution rules. YES shares pay out. The analytical interest has fully shifted to the successor question — what Andy Burnham's premiership means for UK politics, Labour's trajectory, and the broader 2026-2027 political environment — rather than anything related to Starmer's own tenure.