Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

This contract has resolved by announcement. Starmer publicly stated he was resigning on June 22, asked Labour's NEC to set a leadership contest timetable, and will remain only as caretaker until a successor takes office. The resolution criteria requires either his departure or a clear announcement of resignation — the announcement has occurred. The remaining question is purely mechanical: when does Andy Burnham, the clear frontrunner, formally take over? With nominations opening in early July and the handover expected by mid-July or before parliament returns in September, the transition completes well inside the August 31 window under any realistic timetable. YES shares pay out. The live analytical question has shifted entirely to the Labour leadership race and what Burnham's premiership means for UK political markets going forward.