Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

A third round of U.S.-mediated talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations convened in Geneva in February 2026, bringing official government representatives from both sides together in a structured negotiating format. That session — part of a trilateral diplomatic track involving the United States — constitutes a qualifying diplomatic meeting under any reasonable resolution standard. The December 31 deadline is more than ten months away from when the condition was already satisfied. The talks have since entered what observers describe as a situational pause, tied primarily to Washington's attention shifting toward the Iran war. A pause is not a breakdown — the diplomatic channel remains open, and the Geneva sessions established a precedent for direct structured engagement that didn't exist at all as recently as late 2025. The contract resolves on whether a meeting occurred, not on whether talks produced an agreement or are currently active. For traders still seeing this contract as live, the arbitrage case is straightforward: the qualifying event is documented, the resolution criteria are met, and the YES side should be at or near certainty. The more interesting live question — whether the Russia–Ukraine diplomatic track produces a ceasefire framework before year-end — is a separate contract with genuine uncertainty. This one isn't.