Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Stop trading the war. Start trading the contract. Nobody serious is pricing "peace by May 31." The real question — the only one that pays — is whether Polymarket's resolution language is already satisfied. Their criteria: a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement. The U.S.-brokered Victory Day truce (May 9–11), explicitly acknowledged by both Kyiv and Moscow, checks every box on that definition. Crowd odds have moved to effectively 100% YES, and a parallel "ceasefire by June 30" market sits at the same level — consistent with the same truce triggering both. The case for NO isn't geopolitical — both sides violated the truce within hours, the Kremlin called a full deal "a very long way off," and maximalist territorial demands are untouched. The NO case is purely platform risk: you're betting Polymarket reverses its own stated interpretation. That's historically a losing fight. Resolution risk beats war risk here, full stop. Confidence: High. Smart money read the fine print. The remaining NO holders are pricing editorial reversal — not a diplomatic collapse.