Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

The resolution language on this contract is broader than it might appear. Putin ceasing to be president "for any period of time" — including incapacitation, announced future resignation, or effective removal from power — means the bar is lower than a clean coup or voluntary exit. A health event that transfers authority temporarily, or a credible announcement of departure even without an immediate handover, would resolve this Yes. That's worth keeping in mind when evaluating the probability: this isn't purely a bet on regime change, it's a bet on any meaningful disruption to Putin's hold on the presidency within a calendar year. Even with that broader resolution bar, the structural case for a No is strong. Putin is currently in his fifth presidential term, constitutionally enabled to remain in office until 2036 following the 2020 reset of his term count. He has been Russia's dominant political figure for more than 26 years, surviving the Chechen wars, Western sanctions, the 2022 invasion's early failures, the Wagner mutiny, and persistent health speculation. Every succession scenario that has been floated — elite coup, military pressure, popular uprising — has consistently underperformed expectations. The system has been deliberately constructed to make his removal difficult and his succession opaque. The high-single-digit probability the market assigns reflects a reasonable base rate for tail events over a twelve-month window on a leader of advanced age operating in a high-stakes wartime environment — not a specific identified threat. Health risk is the most plausible individual driver; organized elite removal is possible but requires coordination that the security services are specifically designed to prevent. Absent a concrete triggering development, this contract is priced correctly as a low-probability accumulation of low-probability scenarios.