Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Polymarket is pricing about a 13% chance as of 26 May that Iran’s airspace will be fully closed by May 31, down sharply from levels above 40% earlier in the month. Updated odds and whale trades are below. The curve now concentrates risk later. With higher implied odds on mid- to late‑June closure dates as traders fade an immediate escalation. In effect, markets are signaling elevated but not imminent airspace risk—enough to keep airlines and insurers wary. But short of a consensus on a full shutdown by the May 31 cutoff.