Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Iran holds approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% — the central obstacle in US-Iran nuclear negotiations and the specific asset this contract is asking about. The US position is "zero enrichment" with removal of the stockpile. Khamenei has reportedly issued a directive explicitly forbidding export of the enriched uranium. Those two positions describe the gap this contract is pricing. The diplomatic momentum is real. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day negotiating framework that explicitly includes nuclear issues. New York Times and Telegraph reporting describes proposed deal structures where Iran would surrender or give up its highly enriched uranium as part of a comprehensive agreement. That's not nothing — it means the concept of stockpile surrender is on the table rather than categorically excluded from discussions. The resolution criteria is what makes this contract harder than general "deal progress" markets. The contract requires a public agreement explicitly committing to surrender — not caps on enrichment, not in-country down-blending, not vague future-phases language. Khamenei's reported prohibition on uranium export means any qualifying agreement requires overriding that directive at the highest level of Iranian decision-making — a political threshold that active negotiations haven't yet cleared. The distinction between "agreeing to surrender" and "actually surrendering" is where the probability split is most informative. FutureSearch estimates roughly 27% probability that Iran publicly agrees to ship some portion of its enriched uranium abroad by December 31 — while estimating only 4% probability that the US obtains physical custody by that date. That gap between pledge and delivery reflects Iranian negotiating history accurately. Bottom line: This contract prices whether intense US-Iran diplomacy breaks through Khamenei's explicit prohibition and produces a concrete, time-bound public surrender commitment before year-end — not whether talks progress or frameworks are agreed. Watch for any Iranian official publicly endorsing uranium transfer outside Iran's borders as the specific statement that would indicate the prohibition has been overridden at the leadership level.