Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

This market is really about whether Iran will make a very specific public climb‑down on its nuclear program on a tight deadline, and traders are pricing that as unlikely but not impossible. As structured, it only resolves “Yes” if Iran publicly pledges to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026, either in a unilateral statement or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel; any such pledge counts even if implementation is later.