Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?

This market asks whether international internet access in Iran — cut during the 2026 nationwide blackout triggered by the war with the United States and Israel — will be meaningfully restored by September 30, 2026. The scale of the disruption is the starting point. Beginning in late February 2026, Iran imposed a near-total shutdown of international internet access lasting approximately 88 days — described as the longest nationwide internet blackout in modern history. Ordinary users were forced onto the National Information Network, Iran's state-controlled intranet, while foreign messaging apps, social media platforms, and news sites were blocked entirely. NetBlocks, Kentik, and Proton VPN — the independent monitoring organizations that provide the most reliable connectivity data — documented the blackout and its gradual unwinding, with Proton VPN reporting a 6,000% surge in Iranian sign-ups as users sought circumvention tools. Partial restoration began in late May 2026. NetBlocks reported connectivity recovering toward roughly 86% of normal levels, and the Telecommunication Company of Iran claimed full reopening of fixed-line FTTH, VDSL, and ADSL services following orders from President Masoud Pezeshkian and First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref framing restoration as a step toward "free and regulated" access. The operative word is partial — mobile networks, data centers, and major platforms including WhatsApp, Instagram, X, YouTube, Facebook, and Waze remain heavily filtered or blocked, with millions of Iranians still relying on VPNs to access the global internet. The resolution criteria distinguishes between genuine restoration and the current layered censorship environment. Broad, stable connectivity for ordinary users — not just fixed-line access for some, not just the National Information Network, not just elites with paid "Internet Pro" plans — is what resolves this contract YES. Bottom line: Partial restoration is documented and ongoing. Full restoration by September 30 depends on whether Iran's Special Task Force on Cyberspace Management and the Supreme National Security Council decide that mobile networks and major platforms should be unblocked — a political decision as much as a technical one. Watch NetBlocks connectivity percentages and whether mobile data restrictions are lifted as the specific indicators that determine whether Iran crosses the threshold from partial access to the broad restoration this contract requires.