Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

This event has not resolved yet, and markets currently treat “FDV above $150M one day after launch” as more likely than not—roughly a two‑thirds to three‑quarters chance. Contract mechanics The Polymarket rules say this market resolves Yes if Extended’s token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $150M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch (FDV = total token supply × market price on the most liquid venue). If Extended never launches a token by Jan 1, 2027, the event resolves No. Current implied odds Cross‑source snapshots all point to a strong but not absolute “Yes” lean: PredictionHunt: “$150M leads the event at ~75–76% implied probability,” with $300M at ~45%, $500M at ~28%, $800M at ~12%. CryptoRank / Perplexity summary: “Market consensus clustering around a $150M–$300M FDV range, with the $150M band at about 70–83% and $300M around 39–48%.” Polymarket‑specific scrapes: Yes trading around $0.69–0.72 (≈69–72%) for the $150M outcome, with a recent trend alert showing probability rising from 53.5% to 59.0% over late March. Another odds dashboard (Accrue/PredictFun) has a slightly lower but still majority estimate, at ~57–77% for the $150M band. Taken together, the market view is: Extended launching a token at all is seen as fairly likely. If it launches, traders expect its FDV one day after to sit above $150M with something like a 60–80% chance, and in the $150–300M range with slightly lower confidence, while much higher bands ($500M, $800M, $1B) are treated as tails. How to phrase it in your note For the Polymarket question: “Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?” Status: Unresolved; Extended’s token hasn’t launched yet, and the Jan 1, 2027 deadline remains in the future. Base case: Markets assign a clear majority probability (roughly two‑thirds to three‑quarters) that Extended’s post‑launch FDV will be above $150M at the T+1 snapshot, making this the “baseline band” compared to more speculative higher thresholds. If you want, I can help you draft a short comparative paragraph that lines up the $150M, $300M, $500M, and $800M bands so your readers see how the FDV curve is being priced across all outcomes.