Cuban regime falls in 2026?

This market is wild. It is asking whether the Communist Party of Cuba will actually lose its grip on power in 2026. Traders currently think that’s unlikely but very live. The contract resolves “Yes” only if the PCC ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, such as through an overthrow, replacement by a new authority, or a genuine transfer of power after multi‑party elections; elite reshuffles or cosmetic reforms don’t count. As of now, Polymarket prices imply roughly a 20–25% crowd‑sourced probability of collapse this year, meaning the market still leans heavily toward regime continuity despite extreme economic stress, U.S. pressure, and rising public speculation about a fall. Analysts emphasize Cuba’s long base rate of regime survival and the absence of a coherent, organized opposition, arguing that meaningful regime change would almost certainly require decisive U.S. action rather than just internal decay. Public opinion polling of Cubans, by contrast, shows a majority now saying they believe the regime could or will fall in 2026, reflecting regional contagion from events in Venezuela and broader hopes for a break in the status quo, even if markets and experts remain more skeptical